World Cup 2026

For every future match of the 2026 World Cup, we published the chance of each possible pairing, updated after every result. It runs on the uanalyse match model we built: 10,000 Monte Carlo runs of the group stage, with the knockout bracket solved exactly by dynamic programming.

With the whole bracket simulated, we could answer the questions fans were arguing about: how much winning a group was really worth, who each team would most likely meet next, whether Messi could still catch Fontaine. We posted the answers as charts on Reddit: 48 posts over the tournament, 2.8M views in total, ten of them past 100K.

Every forecast was frozen in a signed public git history before kickoff, so nothing could be quietly revised. After the final we graded all 104 matches: the top outcome was right in 62 (59.6%), Brier score 0.533 against 0.667 for a uniform guess, and four of the pre-tournament top five reached the semi-finals.